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The point spread's sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the total amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. For this reason, in the event the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the total amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, no matter what team covers.
The most effective linesmakers are those people who have a feel for what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public's perception of the strength of the 2 teams. It isn't going to necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the 2 teams. And the sportsbook betting public's perception is often wrong.
As soon as you realize that concept, anything else will begin to fall into place. You may have an advantage over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Do not bet against the Cowboys just because you want to see them lose. And, don't bet on a team just because you like the team. And don't bet on your favorite team if you're an avid fan. It's very difficult to be objective. Fans often be overly optimistic about their favorite team or great online casino (cuwip.ucsd.edu published a blog post) overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the exact same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they are not so sure of. It's those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. If you're uncertain about a game, don't bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. Conversely, if you're able to be objective, you have an advantage. You probably know more about your home team than those in other parts of the country since the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage that's not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, component that into your decision. Some teams have other teams' number. In the last four years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times as well as the one time they did not, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. In the last 5 years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and you lose your bet. Yet, remember the point is to increase your probability of winning. Determined by past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you are more more likely to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late within the week. By waiting before the end of the week, you'll know about any injuries to key players which may affect how you bet. In many instances, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that may keep the player out of the game. Furthermore, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Number of Games You Bet. More isn't better. The optimum number seems to be 3 to 6 games. Anymore and the winning percentages often decline because the law of averages comes into play. (The greater games you play the better likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that's a losing season, as a result of the juice.) Also, it's easier to focus on a limited number of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. Regardless of what, you may count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, as well as books. Be well prepared to ride it out. For anyone who is using Pro Predictor or possibly a handicapping service, you need to stick with it throughout the season to be able to come out a winner. Leaving at the very first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to possess the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you will never have and may affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is a vital to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over as well as over until it really is firmly embedded within your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, if you are going to bet on streaks, bet the streak shall continue. And it does not matter whether or not the streak is a winning streak or a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and also you should bet against it. But there's a hidden trap.
Think about the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Of course, every week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You're $100 ahead. But what happens should they do cover and the streak continues. You are $110 in the hole. What do you need to do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 because the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? In the event that you do, as well as the streak ends, you win $100 and now are only $10 loser and that is the end of that. Still, if the streak continues, you are now $220 within the hole. What do you need to do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall into the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and try to get back some of your losses? Do you double up within an attempt to cover your loses? Do not do it. Doubling up is never a good idea. It really is another trap that may cause you to have huge losses and it is not worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. If they fail to cover, you have lost $110 and that's that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens if they do cover and the streak continues. You're $100 to the excellent and if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you may lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Nevertheless, if the streak continues, you are guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
Because of this, if you bet against a streak, the most you can win is $100 but you the amount you can lose is limited only by the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you can lose is $110, although the amount you can win is limited only by the length of the streak.