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The point spread's sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. As a result, if the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the total amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, regardless of which team covers.
The top linesmakers are individuals who have a feel for precisely what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public's perception of the strength of the two teams. It doesn't necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. And the sportsbook betting public's perception is often wrong.
As soon as you understand that concept, the rest shall begin to fall into place. You may have an advantage over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Don't bet against the Cowboys just because you want to see them lose. And, don't bet on a team simply because you like the team. And don't bet on your favorite team in the event that you are an avid fan. It's extremely hard to be objective. Fans tend to be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the exact same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they're not so sure of. It's those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. If you're uncertain about a game, don't bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. On the other hand, if you can be objective, you have an edge. You probably know more about your home team than those in other parts of the country because the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage that is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, component that into your decision. Some teams have other teams' number. Within the last four years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times as well as the one time they didn't, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. Within the last five years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and also you lose your bet. However, remember the idea is to increase your probability of winning. According to past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you are more very likely to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late in the week. By waiting until the end of the week, you definitely will know about any injuries to key players that may affect the way you bet. Routinely, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that can keep the player out of the game. Additionally, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Number of Games You Bet. More just isn't better. The optimum number appears to be 3 to 6 games. Anymore as well as the winning percentages usually decline because the law of averages is needed. (The better games you play the greater likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that's a losing season, due to the juice.) Furthermore, it's simpler to pay attention to a limited number of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. No matter what, you may count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, and also books. Be well prepared to ride it out. When you are using Pro Predictor or possibly a handicapping service, you need to stick with it through the season so that you can come out a winner. Leaving at the first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to have the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you are going to never have and will affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is a vital to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over and over until it's firmly embedded in your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, in case you are going to bet on streaks, bet the streak will continue. And it doesn't matter whether the streak is a winning streak or possibly a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and you should bet against it. But there is a hidden trap.
Consider the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Keep in mind, every week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You're $100 ahead. But what happens if they do cover and the streak continues. You're $110 in the hole. What do you need to do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 since the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? If you do, as well as the streak ends, you win $100 and now are only $10 loser and that's the end of that. Nonetheless, in the event the streak continues, you're now $220 within the hole. What do you need to do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall into the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and try and get back several of your losses? Do you double up within an try to cover your loses? Don't do it. Doubling up is never an excellent idea. It really is another trap that can cause you to have huge losses and it isn't worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. Whenever they fail to cover, you have lost $110 and that's that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens if they do cover and the streak continues. You're $100 to the good and fantastic online football (why not try here) if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you may lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and also the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Nonetheless, in the event the streak continues, you're guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
Therefore, if you bet against a streak, the most you may win is $100 but you the total amount you can lose is limited only through the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you can lose is $110, though the amount you may win is limited only by the length of the streak.